CryptoPunk #8586 valuation (beta)
Male, Mohawk Thin, Clown Eyes Blue.
Valuation (beta), not a floor: 26.9 ETH (about $61,184). 1σ range 23.8 to 30.4 ETH, 2σ range 21.1 to 34.4 ETH. Confidence: High. Valued at the latest floor (as of 20:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH), fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04, model est-v2-202610.
Listed at 125 ETH, 12.6σ above the estimate.
Why this valuation
- Estimate 26.9 ETH (beta), 1σ range 23.8 to 30.4 ETH, 2σ range 21.1 to 34.4 ETH, confidence High, as of 20:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).
- Floor 30.4 ETH at 20:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.
- Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (778 sales, 12 months).
- Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, 2 attributes (vs 3) -4%, Mohawk Thin -11%, Clown Eyes Blue -8%.
- In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1).
Comparable sales
- #3667 2026-10-09: 33.0 ETH (31.4 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #3667 2026-10-08: 31.7 ETH (29.0 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #5635 2026-10-04: 33.4 ETH (30.4 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #5329 2026-09-30: 38.9 ETH (35.4 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #5635 2026-09-29: 32.3 ETH (28.9 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #5635 2026-09-29: 31.2 ETH (27.9 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #192 2026-09-24: 36.0 ETH (32.0 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #3667 2026-09-22: 33.3 ETH (30.8 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
Sales of this punk
- 2020-05-24: 1.00 ETH (sale)
- 2020-09-14: 1.75 ETH (sale)
- 2020-09-20: 1.99 ETH (sale)
- 2020-09-29: 5.90 ETH (sale)
- 2021-03-26: 19.7 ETH (sale)
- 2021-09-15: 77.0 ETH (sale)
- 2021-09-28: 97.5 ETH (accepted bid)
- 2021-09-28: 103 ETH (sale)
- 2021-10-01: 118 ETH (sale)
- 2022-02-20: 65.0 ETH (sale)
Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.