CryptoPunk #8616 valuation (beta)
Male, Front Beard Dark, Cap, Nerd Glasses.
Valuation (beta), not a floor: 34.6 ETH (about $78,624). 1σ range 31.7 to 37.7 ETH, 2σ range 29.1 to 41.1 ETH. Confidence: High. Valued at the latest floor (as of 21:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH), fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04, model est-v2-202610.
Not listed for sale.
Why this valuation
- Estimate 34.6 ETH (beta), 1σ range 31.7 to 37.7 ETH, 2σ range 29.1 to 41.1 ETH, confidence High, as of 21:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).
- Floor 30.4 ETH at 21:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.
- Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (778 sales, 12 months).
- Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +10%, Front Beard Dark -7%.
- In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1).
Comparable sales
- #7368 2026-09-24: 39.9 ETH (35.5 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #4371 2026-05-20: 34.8 ETH (30.7 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #2718 2026-02-01: 27.2 ETH (29.9 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #9993 2025-12-23: 33.7 ETH (37.5 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #9993 2025-07-30: 58.5 ETH (32.6 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #3843 2025-06-26: 48.4 ETH (37.2 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #9993 2025-06-18: 53.0 ETH (38.4 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #3843 2025-06-12: 50.4 ETH (34.4 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
Sales of this punk
- 2020-01-22: 0.70 ETH (sale)
Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.