CryptoPunk #8621 valuation (beta)
Female, Black Lipstick, Earring, Straight Hair Dark, Cigarette.
Valuation (beta), not a floor: 30.0 ETH (about $68,279). 1σ range 28.4 to 31.7 ETH, 2σ range 26.9 to 33.5 ETH. Confidence: Low. Valued at the latest floor (as of 21:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH), fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04, model est-v2-202610.
Listed at 60.0 ETH, 12.5σ above the estimate.
Why this valuation
- Estimate 30.0 ETH (beta), 1σ range 28.4 to 31.7 ETH, 2σ range 26.9 to 33.5 ETH, confidence Low, as of 21:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).
- Floor 30.4 ETH at 21:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.
- Female punks sold at a median 1.01x the floor of the day before (442 sales, 12 months).
- Terms with clear support: Cigarette -2%.
- Female estimates sit close to the floor by design: in the backtest the floor times the type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.
- In the backtest, Female 4+ sales landed within ±3.4% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±4.5% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1).
Comparable sales
- #2127 2026-01-15: 29.4 ETH (30.2 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #4319 2025-12-19: 26.0 ETH (29.3 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #4319 2025-12-19: 25.5 ETH (28.8 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #5108 2025-11-24: 36.0 ETH (34.9 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #3961 2025-08-10: 75.0 ETH (41.4 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #4319 2025-08-09: 54.7 ETH (29.8 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #8774 2025-08-09: 54.0 ETH (29.5 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #8774 2025-08-05: 51.0 ETH (29.7 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
Sales of this punk
- 2021-04-16: 22.5 ETH (sale)
Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.