CryptoPunk #2196 valuation (beta)
Female, Hot Lipstick, Choker, Mohawk Thin.
Valuation (beta), not a floor: 37.6 ETH (about $85,498). 1σ range 33.6 to 42.1 ETH, 2σ range 30.0 to 47.2 ETH. Confidence: Low. Valued at the latest floor (as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH), fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04, model est-v2-202610.
Listed at 125 ETH, 10.6σ above the estimate.
Why this valuation
- Estimate 37.6 ETH (beta), 1σ range 33.6 to 42.1 ETH, 2σ range 30.0 to 47.2 ETH, confidence Low, as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).
- Floor 30.4 ETH at 22:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.
- Female punks sold at a median 1.01x the floor of the day before (442 sales, 12 months).
- Terms with clear support: Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +4%, Choker +18%.
- Female estimates sit close to the floor by design: in the backtest the floor times the type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.
- In the backtest, Female 2-3 sales landed within ±4% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±4.1% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1).
Comparable sales
- #2617 2026-07-02: 32.0 ETH (30.0 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #2617 2026-06-27: 32.0 ETH (29.5 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #2617 2026-06-22: 30.1 ETH (27.7 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #4105 2026-06-05: 30.9 ETH (28.9 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #9433 2026-06-05: 30.5 ETH (28.6 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #9433 2026-05-23: 32.5 ETH (29.1 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #9383 2025-04-21: 41.7 ETH (29.8 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #9383 2025-04-20: 40.2 ETH (28.9 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
Sales of this punk
- 2021-03-13: 55.0 ETH (accepted bid)
- 2021-08-03: 120 ETH (sale)
Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.