CryptoPunk #3438 valuation (beta)
Male, Frown, Shadow Beard, Earring, Frumpy Hair, Classic Shades.
Valuation (beta), not a floor: 34.5 ETH (about $83,641). 1σ range 31.4 to 37.9 ETH, 2σ range 28.6 to 41.7 ETH. Confidence: Medium. Valued at the latest floor (as of 02:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH), fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05, model est-v2-202610.
Listed at 100 ETH, 11.3σ above the estimate.
Why this valuation
- Estimate 34.5 ETH (beta), 1σ range 31.4 to 37.9 ETH, 2σ range 28.6 to 41.7 ETH, confidence Medium, as of 02:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).
- Floor 30.4 ETH at 02:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.
- Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).
- Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +13%, Earring -2%, Frumpy Hair -7%.
- In the backtest, Male 4+ sales landed within ±6.9% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.6% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1).
Comparable sales
- #2032 2024-11-26: 40.8 ETH (33.3 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-05)
- #2032 2024-11-12: 32.0 ETH (33.3 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-05)
- #3218 2026-08-29: 32.4 ETH (30.9 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-05)
- #8949 2026-07-31: 35.0 ETH (33.0 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-05)
- #8949 2026-04-07: 27.8 ETH (29.9 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-05)
- #8949 2026-02-12: 35.0 ETH (35.6 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-05)
- #3218 2026-02-05: 29.0 ETH (29.5 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-05)
- #8949 2025-07-22: 50.0 ETH (32.0 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-05)
Sales of this punk
- 2021-07-31: 88.0 ETH (sale)
- 2021-08-06: 108 ETH (sale)
- 2021-08-23: 115 ETH (sale)
- 2022-03-16: 80.0 ETH (accepted bid)
- 2022-06-13: 62.0 ETH (sale)
- 2022-07-12: 88.0 ETH (accepted bid)
- 2022-07-13: 99.0 ETH (accepted bid)
- 2023-09-04: 65.0 ETH (sale)
- 2023-11-10: 68.0 ETH (sale)
- 2024-02-17: 74.0 ETH (sale)
Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.