CryptoPunk #3454 valuation (beta)
Male, Handlebars, Cap, Eye Patch.
Valuation (beta), not a floor: 35.8 ETH (about $81,411). 1σ range 32.6 to 39.4 ETH, 2σ range 29.6 to 43.3 ETH. Confidence: High. Valued at the latest floor (as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH), fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04, model est-v2-202610.
Listed at 47.0 ETH, 2.9σ above the estimate.
Why this valuation
- Estimate 35.8 ETH (beta), 1σ range 32.6 to 39.4 ETH, 2σ range 29.6 to 43.3 ETH, confidence High, as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).
- Floor 30.4 ETH at 22:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.
- Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (778 sales, 12 months).
- Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +13%, Handlebars -6%.
- In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1).
Comparable sales
- #2004 2026-09-22: 35.0 ETH (32.4 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #1223 2026-08-07: 41.8 ETH (38.7 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #1223 2026-01-06: 34.0 ETH (34.0 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #5355 2025-10-30: 50.0 ETH (39.5 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #2408 2025-09-29: 49.0 ETH (31.5 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #7161 2025-05-22: 53.7 ETH (34.3 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #9680 2025-05-08: 46.0 ETH (30.8 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #7161 2025-04-24: 48.7 ETH (33.9 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
Sales of this punk
- 2018-12-20: 0.25 ETH (sale)
- 2021-02-21: 23.7 ETH (sale)
- 2021-02-24: 25.0 ETH (sale)
- 2021-08-28: 125 ETH (sale)
- 2025-10-06: 52.0 ETH (sale)
Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.