CryptoPunk #3854 valuation (beta)
Male, Earring, Police Cap.
Valuation (beta), not a floor: 35.9 ETH (about $81,690). 1σ range 32.7 to 39.5 ETH, 2σ range 29.7 to 43.5 ETH. Confidence: Low. Valued at the latest floor (as of 21:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH), fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04, model est-v2-202610.
Not listed for sale.
Why this valuation
- Estimate 35.9 ETH (beta), 1σ range 32.7 to 39.5 ETH, 2σ range 29.7 to 43.5 ETH, confidence Low, as of 21:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).
- Floor 30.4 ETH at 21:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.
- Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (778 sales, 12 months).
- Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +13%, 2 attributes (vs 3) -4%, Earring -2%.
- In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1).
Comparable sales
- #4708 2026-05-07: 30.5 ETH (29.5 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #4824 2026-03-24: 31.8 ETH (32.3 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #4824 2026-02-05: 31.6 ETH (31.7 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #4824 2026-02-05: 30.5 ETH (30.6 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #2401 2026-02-01: 28.5 ETH (31.3 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #2401 2026-01-16: 25.6 ETH (26.7 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #2925 2025-12-27: 26.5 ETH (29.5 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #2925 2025-12-22: 24.9 ETH (27.7 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
Sales of this punk
- 2019-05-06: 0.50 ETH (sale)
- 2020-05-19: 1.25 ETH (sale)
- 2021-07-16: 24.0 ETH (sale)
- 2021-08-06: 57.8 ETH (sale)
- 2021-08-06: 68.0 ETH (sale)
- 2021-08-27: 99.0 ETH (sale)
- 2021-08-28: 120 ETH (sale)
- 2021-08-29: 159 ETH (sale)
- 2022-04-28: 66.0 ETH (sale)
Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.