CryptoPunk #3949 valuation (beta)
Female, Black Lipstick, Half Shaved, Purple Eye Shadow.
Valuation (beta), not a floor: 31.2 ETH (about $70,873). 1σ range 29.6 to 32.9 ETH, 2σ range 28.1 to 34.6 ETH. Confidence: Low. Valued at the latest floor (as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH), fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04, model est-v2-202610.
Listed at 57.6 ETH, 11.7σ above the estimate.
Why this valuation
- Estimate 31.2 ETH (beta), 1σ range 29.6 to 32.9 ETH, 2σ range 28.1 to 34.6 ETH, confidence Low, as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).
- Floor 30.4 ETH at 22:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.
- Female punks sold at a median 1.01x the floor of the day before (442 sales, 12 months).
- Terms with clear support: Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +4%, Purple Eye Shadow -2%.
- Female estimates sit close to the floor by design: in the backtest the floor times the type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.
- In the backtest, Female 2-3 sales landed within ±4% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±4.1% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1).
Comparable sales
- #8955 2026-10-18: 32.0 ETH (31.3 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #6263 2026-10-08: 31.0 ETH (28.4 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #8955 2026-09-23: 35.5 ETH (31.3 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #6263 2026-09-22: 32.4 ETH (30.0 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #6573 2026-09-21: 32.0 ETH (30.9 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #6631 2026-08-12: 31.0 ETH (29.3 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #6631 2026-08-12: 30.0 ETH (28.4 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #9945 2026-07-27: 38.0 ETH (35.2 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
Sales of this punk
- 2021-07-10: 22.5 ETH (sale)
- 2021-07-30: 25.5 ETH (sale)
- 2025-10-03: 46.5 ETH (sale)
- 2025-10-03: 47.5 ETH (sale, not used: relay-same-block)
- 2025-10-03: 48.0 ETH (sale)
Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.