CryptoPunk #3978 valuation (beta)
Male, Smile, Mole, Wild Hair.
Valuation (beta), not a floor: 44.3 ETH (about $100,721). 1σ range 37.2 to 52.8 ETH, 2σ range 31.2 to 63.0 ETH. Confidence: Low. Valued at the latest floor (as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH), fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04, model est-v2-202610.
Listed at 80.0 ETH, 3.4σ above the estimate.
Why this valuation
- Estimate 44.3 ETH (beta), 1σ range 37.2 to 52.8 ETH, 2σ range 31.2 to 63.0 ETH, confidence Low, as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).
- Floor 30.4 ETH at 22:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.
- Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (778 sales, 12 months).
- Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 4 (vs 1) +20%, Smile +17%, Mole -7%.
- In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1).
Comparable sales
- #3425 2026-11-02: 27.6 ETH (27.2 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #9984 2026-09-21: 31.2 ETH (30.2 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #3425 2026-07-30: 33.0 ETH (30.6 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #8632 2026-05-16: 45.0 ETH (41.1 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #9984 2026-04-27: 30.8 ETH (29.9 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #3425 2026-03-27: 27.3 ETH (28.4 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #6012 2026-01-20: 44.4 ETH (48.9 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #2211 2026-01-02: 27.1 ETH (29.1 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
Sales of this punk
- 2021-04-18: 40.0 ETH (sale)
- 2021-07-31: 46.0 ETH (sale)
- 2021-08-12: 70.0 ETH (accepted bid)
- 2023-03-29: 80.0 ETH (accepted bid)
- 2024-08-27: 40.0 ETH (sale)
- 2025-04-07: 60.0 ETH (accepted bid)
Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.