CryptoPunk #416 valuation (beta)
Male, Smile, Hoodie, Cigarette.
Valuation (beta), not a floor: 134 ETH (about $304,411). 1σ range 65.5 to 273 ETH, 2σ range 32.1 to 559 ETH. Confidence: Low. Valued at the latest floor (as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH), fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04, model est-v2-202610.
Not listed for sale.
Why this valuation
- Estimate 134 ETH (beta), 1σ range 65.5 to 273 ETH, 2σ range 32.1 to 559 ETH, confidence Low, as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).
- Floor 30.4 ETH at 22:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.
- Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (778 sales, 12 months).
- Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Smile +17%, Hoodie +238%.
- In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1).
Comparable sales
- #1839 2026-09-04: 162 ETH (158 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #9953 2026-06-18: 165 ETH (151 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #6634 2026-05-04: 205 ETH (199 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #5655 2026-02-06: 40.0 ETH (40.2 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #9901 2026-01-20: 120 ETH (132 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #7917 2026-01-03: 31.1 ETH (33.0 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #5233 2025-07-30: 75.0 ETH (41.8 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #4653 2025-07-25: 129 ETH (74.4 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
Sales of this punk
- 2021-03-22: 65.0 ETH (sale)
- 2022-04-15: 250 ETH (accepted bid)
Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.