CryptoPunk #4176 valuation (beta)
Female, Purple Lipstick, Earring, Straight Hair Blonde, Medical Mask, Green Eye Shadow.
Valuation (beta), not a floor: 31.6 ETH (about $71,775). 1σ range 29.9 to 33.4 ETH, 2σ range 28.2 to 35.3 ETH. Confidence: Low. Valued at the latest floor (as of 21:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH), fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04, model est-v2-202610.
Listed at 49.0 ETH, 7.9σ above the estimate.
Why this valuation
- Estimate 31.6 ETH (beta), 1σ range 29.9 to 33.4 ETH, 2σ range 28.2 to 35.3 ETH, confidence Low, as of 21:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).
- Floor 30.4 ETH at 21:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.
- Female punks sold at a median 1.01x the floor of the day before (442 sales, 12 months).
- Terms with clear support: Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +3%.
- Female estimates sit close to the floor by design: in the backtest the floor times the type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.
- In the backtest, Female 4+ sales landed within ±3.4% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±4.5% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1).
Comparable sales
- #7663 2026-04-04: 32.0 ETH (34.3 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #7663 2025-10-06: 49.7 ETH (30.6 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #5060 2025-09-15: 48.1 ETH (29.5 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #9663 2025-07-29: 70.0 ETH (39.6 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #5060 2025-03-05: 36.5 ETH (29.2 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #4332 2024-11-30: 40.0 ETH (30.0 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #9663 2024-11-29: 55.0 ETH (41.5 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #4332 2024-11-26: 34.5 ETH (27.7 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
Sales of this punk
- 2018-01-13: 0.15 ETH (sale)
- 2021-01-04: 13.5 ETH (accepted bid)
- 2021-01-12: 15.0 ETH (accepted bid)
- 2021-01-25: 19.0 ETH (sale)
- 2021-03-31: 85.0 ETH (accepted bid)
- 2022-06-20: 89.0 ETH (sale)
- 2022-11-01: 79.5 ETH (accepted bid)
Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.