CryptoPunk #4261 valuation (beta)
Male, Silver Chain, Normal Beard Black, Do-rag, Cigarette.
Valuation (beta), not a floor: 35.2 ETH (about $80,141). 1σ range 31.9 to 38.9 ETH, 2σ range 28.9 to 42.9 ETH. Confidence: Low. Valued at the latest floor (as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH), fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04, model est-v2-202610.
Listed at 510 ETH, 27.1σ above the estimate.
Why this valuation
- Estimate 35.2 ETH (beta), 1σ range 31.9 to 38.9 ETH, 2σ range 28.9 to 42.9 ETH, confidence Low, as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).
- Floor 30.4 ETH at 22:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.
- Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (778 sales, 12 months).
- Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +10%, Do-rag -6%.
- In the backtest, Male 4+ sales landed within ±6.9% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.6% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1).
Comparable sales
- #2762 2026-09-18: 32.5 ETH (32.8 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #9548 2026-06-05: 31.9 ETH (29.9 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #2762 2026-05-08: 33.0 ETH (31.9 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #2762 2026-04-20: 27.7 ETH (32.0 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #6508 2026-04-17: 27.9 ETH (31.3 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #6508 2026-04-12: 26.7 ETH (28.9 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #6508 2026-04-11: 28.4 ETH (31.7 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #8627 2026-01-27: 28.5 ETH (30.1 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
Sales of this punk
- 2019-09-02: 0.25 ETH (sale)
- 2020-01-04: 0.65 ETH (sale)
- 2020-09-15: 3.25 ETH (sale)
- 2020-10-25: 5.50 ETH (accepted bid)
- 2020-12-14: 2.40 ETH (accepted bid, not used: round-trip-30d)
- 2020-12-22: 3.20 ETH (sale, not used: round-trip-30d)
- 2020-12-23: 5.50 ETH (sale)
- 2021-02-09: 7.85 ETH (sale)
- 2021-02-21: 21.0 ETH (sale)
- 2021-02-25: 36.0 ETH (accepted bid)
Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.