CryptoPunk #4444 valuation (beta)
Male, Mole, Normal Beard Black, Shaved Head.
Valuation (beta), not a floor: 29.3 ETH (about $66,611). 1σ range 26.7 to 32.2 ETH, 2σ range 24.3 to 35.4 ETH. Confidence: Low. Valued at the latest floor (as of 21:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH), fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04, model est-v2-202610.
Listed at 99.0 ETH, 12.9σ above the estimate.
Why this valuation
- Estimate 29.3 ETH (beta), 1σ range 26.7 to 32.2 ETH, 2σ range 24.3 to 35.4 ETH, confidence Low, as of 21:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).
- Floor 30.4 ETH at 21:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.
- Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (778 sales, 12 months).
- Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Mole -7%, Shaved Head -7%.
- In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1).
Comparable sales
- #4720 2026-01-22: 28.8 ETH (31.7 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #4720 2026-01-18: 26.5 ETH (27.2 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #5206 2025-07-23: 55.0 ETH (33.8 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #4414 2025-05-13: 50.0 ETH (31.2 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #5206 2025-02-24: 36.0 ETH (31.3 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #6276 2024-12-02: 44.0 ETH (29.7 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #9585 2026-11-02: 31.0 ETH (30.6 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #3425 2026-11-02: 27.6 ETH (27.2 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
Sales of this punk
- 2021-01-01: 11.4 ETH (sale)
- 2021-02-05: 24.0 ETH (sale)
Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.