CryptoPunk #4506 valuation (beta)
Male, Front Beard, Earring, Beanie.
Valuation (beta), not a floor: 34.5 ETH (about $78,501). 1σ range 31.7 to 37.6 ETH, 2σ range 29.1 to 41.0 ETH. Confidence: Low. Valued at the latest floor (as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH), fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04, model est-v2-202610.
Listed at 130 ETH, 15.4σ above the estimate.
Why this valuation
- Estimate 34.5 ETH (beta), 1σ range 31.7 to 37.6 ETH, 2σ range 29.1 to 41.0 ETH, confidence Low, as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).
- Floor 30.4 ETH at 23:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.
- Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (778 sales, 12 months).
- Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +13%, Front Beard -7%, Earring -2%.
- In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1).
Comparable sales
- #8871 2026-10-16: 32.0 ETH (31.0 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #8871 2026-09-23: 34.0 ETH (30.0 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #7310 2026-05-17: 32.9 ETH (29.7 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #2271 2026-03-20: 29.7 ETH (31.3 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #2271 2026-03-06: 29.4 ETH (30.0 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #2503 2026-01-21: 27.3 ETH (30.1 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #2503 2026-01-21: 26.5 ETH (29.2 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #2503 2026-01-20: 27.5 ETH (30.3 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
Sales of this punk
- 2021-07-31: 220 ETH (sale)
- 2023-12-27: 130 ETH (sale)
- 2024-01-16: 134 ETH (accepted bid)
Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.