CryptoPunk #4640 valuation (beta)
Male, Frown, Top Hat, Nerd Glasses.
Valuation (beta), not a floor: 48.6 ETH (about $110,444). 1σ range 39.1 to 60.4 ETH, 2σ range 31.4 to 75.1 ETH. Confidence: Low. Valued at the latest floor (as of 21:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH), fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04, model est-v2-202610.
Listed at 69.3 ETH, 1.6σ above the estimate.
Why this valuation
- Estimate 48.6 ETH (beta), 1σ range 39.1 to 60.4 ETH, 2σ range 31.4 to 75.1 ETH, confidence Low, as of 21:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).
- Floor 30.4 ETH at 21:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.
- Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (778 sales, 12 months).
- Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +10%, Top Hat +30%.
- In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1).
Comparable sales
- #7368 2026-09-24: 39.9 ETH (35.5 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #9289 2025-01-18: 40.0 ETH (32.2 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #5877 2024-11-14: 39.7 ETH (36.1 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #7440 2026-11-01: 40.4 ETH (39.8 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #6066 2026-10-21: 60.0 ETH (57.5 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #1424 2026-10-20: 53.0 ETH (50.8 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #7711 2026-10-20: 29.0 ETH (27.8 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #5098 2026-10-15: 30.4 ETH (29.4 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
Sales of this punk
- 2017-06-24: 0.05 ETH (accepted bid, not used: below-half-floor)
- 2018-10-02: 1.00 ETH (sale)
- 2020-09-29: 11.5 ETH (sale)
- 2021-02-09: 16.0 ETH (sale)
- 2024-10-23: 41.0 ETH (sale)
Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.