CryptoPunk #5864 valuation (beta)
Male, Do-rag, Cigarette, Small Shades.
Valuation (beta), not a floor: 35.2 ETH (about $80,141). 1σ range 32.2 to 38.6 ETH, 2σ range 29.4 to 42.2 ETH. Confidence: High. Valued at the latest floor (as of 21:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH), fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04, model est-v2-202610.
Not listed for sale.
Why this valuation
- Estimate 35.2 ETH (beta), 1σ range 32.2 to 38.6 ETH, 2σ range 29.4 to 42.2 ETH, confidence High, as of 21:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).
- Floor 30.4 ETH at 21:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.
- Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (778 sales, 12 months).
- Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +10%, Do-rag -6%.
- In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1).
Comparable sales
- #6508 2026-04-17: 27.9 ETH (31.3 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #6508 2026-04-12: 26.7 ETH (28.9 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #6508 2026-04-11: 28.4 ETH (31.7 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #3960 2026-09-22: 31.0 ETH (28.7 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #8123 2026-08-05: 41.0 ETH (38.8 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #9548 2026-06-05: 31.9 ETH (29.9 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #8627 2026-01-27: 28.5 ETH (30.1 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #3020 2026-01-19: 27.5 ETH (28.4 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
Sales of this punk
- 2021-06-26: 15.0 ETH (sale)
- 2021-07-14: 22.5 ETH (sale)
- 2022-08-04: 77.4 ETH (sale)
- 2022-08-30: 71.0 ETH (accepted bid)
- 2025-05-13: 49.5 ETH (sale)
- 2025-05-22: 51.9 ETH (sale)
Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.