CryptoPunk #686 valuation (beta)
Male, Smile, Chinstrap, Earring, Shaved Head, Pipe.
Valuation (beta), not a floor: 37.4 ETH (about $85,076). 1σ range 33.4 to 42.0 ETH, 2σ range 29.7 to 47.1 ETH. Confidence: Low. Valued at the latest floor (as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH), fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04, model est-v2-202610.
Not listed for sale.
Why this valuation
- Estimate 37.4 ETH (beta), 1σ range 33.4 to 42.0 ETH, 2σ range 29.7 to 47.1 ETH, confidence Low, as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).
- Floor 30.4 ETH at 23:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.
- Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (778 sales, 12 months).
- Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +10%, Smile +17%, Chinstrap -5%, Earring -2%, Shaved Head -7%.
- In the backtest, Male 4+ sales landed within ±6.9% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.6% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1).
Comparable sales
- #3569 2025-07-27: 69.3 ETH (40.8 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #1695 2025-03-24: 40.0 ETH (28.7 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #7591 2026-09-25: 33.2 ETH (29.6 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #8246 2026-09-22: 32.0 ETH (29.6 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #2505 2026-09-21: 31.7 ETH (30.7 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #1839 2026-09-04: 162 ETH (158 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #1717 2026-08-23: 38.0 ETH (35.6 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #2505 2026-08-20: 32.3 ETH (29.8 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
Sales of this punk
- 2021-02-21: 45.0 ETH (sale)
- 2021-07-26: 77.8 ETH (sale)
- 2021-08-19: 105 ETH (accepted bid)
- 2022-05-17: 60.0 ETH (sale)
- 2022-06-18: 75.0 ETH (sale)
- 2022-09-24: 105 ETH (sale)
Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.