CryptoPunk #9404 valuation (beta)
Male, Muttonchops, Earring, Peak Spike, Regular Shades.
Valuation (beta), not a floor: 28.3 ETH (about $64,258). 1σ range 25.3 to 31.6 ETH, 2σ range 22.6 to 35.4 ETH. Confidence: Medium. Valued at the latest floor (as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH), fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04, model est-v2-202610.
Listed at 37.9 ETH, 2.6σ above the estimate.
Why this valuation
- Estimate 28.3 ETH (beta), 1σ range 25.3 to 31.6 ETH, 2σ range 22.6 to 35.4 ETH, confidence Medium, as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).
- Floor 30.4 ETH at 22:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.
- Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (778 sales, 12 months).
- Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Muttonchops -9%, Earring -2%, Peak Spike -6%.
- In the backtest, Male 4+ sales landed within ±6.9% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.6% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1).
Comparable sales
- #6117 2025-08-08: 53.5 ETH (29.9 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #9765 2025-07-20: 47.0 ETH (29.8 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #6117 2024-11-15: 36.0 ETH (28.4 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #9018 2026-10-29: 30.0 ETH (31.0 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #8427 2026-10-23: 29.4 ETH (28.4 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #2235 2026-09-24: 36.0 ETH (32.0 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #4714 2026-09-24: 39.9 ETH (35.5 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
- #8375 2026-09-04: 32.5 ETH (31.7 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-04)
Sales of this punk
- 2017-12-10: 0.15 ETH (sale)
- 2019-01-26: 0.30 ETH (sale)
- 2020-09-26: 3.49 ETH (sale)
- 2026-05-04: 29.7 ETH (accepted bid)
- 2026-10-25: 29.5 ETH (accepted bid)
Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.