CryptoPunk #9510 valuation (beta)
Male, Big Beard, Wild Hair.
Valuation (beta), not a floor: 36.0 ETH (about $87,188). 1σ range 32.7 to 39.6 ETH, 2σ range 29.7 to 43.6 ETH. Confidence: Low. Valued at the latest floor (as of 01:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH), fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05, model est-v2-202610.
Listed at 150 ETH, 14.9σ above the estimate.
Why this valuation
- Estimate 36.0 ETH (beta), 1σ range 32.7 to 39.6 ETH, 2σ range 29.7 to 43.6 ETH, confidence Low, as of 01:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).
- Floor 30.4 ETH at 01:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.
- Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).
- Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +10%, 2 attributes (vs 3) -4%.
- In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1).
Comparable sales
- #3425 2026-11-02: 27.6 ETH (27.6 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-05)
- #5448 2026-10-21: 60.0 ETH (58.3 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-05)
- #1349 2026-10-13: 38.7 ETH (37.6 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-05)
- #5448 2026-10-01: 35.0 ETH (32.2 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-05)
- #1941 2026-09-23: 60.5 ETH (54.0 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-05)
- #8816 2026-09-03: 33.9 ETH (33.5 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-05)
- #3298 2026-08-17: 140 ETH (132 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-05)
- #8123 2026-08-05: 41.0 ETH (39.3 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-05)
Sales of this punk
- 2020-05-22: 2.53 ETH (sale)
- 2021-07-12: 32.0 ETH (sale)
- 2021-07-17: 35.5 ETH (sale)
- 2021-09-29: 130 ETH (sale)
- 2021-12-31: 85.0 ETH (sale)
- 2022-06-19: 87.0 ETH (sale)
- 2024-09-09: 53.0 ETH (sale)
Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.